Yellow Capital Blog/Crypto Market Making/How to do Volume Profile Analysis for Better Trades

How to do Volume Profile Analysis for Better Trades

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

What is Volume Profile?

The volume profile is one of the most useful tools for deciphering the true relationship between price and trading volume in the crypto market. Unlike traditional volume indicators that only show the total amount of volume traded at an exact moment in time, the volume profile shows how much volume occurred at each price level. This allows traders to pinpoint the key areas where the notable buying and selling went on, thus providing insight into areas of support, resistance, and potential reversals. Consider volume profile as a type of market interest heat map. Imagine that Bitcoin has traded in the range between $45,000 to $50,000. While traditional indicators could show exactly how much volume has occurred on any given day, the volume profile will show exactly how much Bitcoin was bought and sold at each price point within that range.
This gives you a better picture of where buyers and sellers are most active and where the market might turn or consolidate.

Why Volume Profile Matters in Crypto Trading?

Crypto markets are very volatile and known for sudden changes in price. The volume profile assists traders in determining the exact levels at which price action is likely to face friction simply by observing volume at different price levels. These are commonly referred to as high-volume nodes, which indicate trading activity bunching together—reflecting keen interest from both buyers and sellers.
For instance, if Ethereum is trading at $3,000 but most of the volume has taken place between $2,800 and $2,900, then that range itself becomes a key support zone. If Ethereum falls back on that price, then a trader should expect heavy activity—actually, a bounce when buyers join in or a breakdown when the sellers overpower the market.
Volume profile is, therefore, especially valuable in the crypto-trading environment in that one would be afforded a much clearer view of where the market participants are positioned. The question it really answers is at what price levels do traders actually commit large volumes of capital? This insight is priceless when it comes to making decisions about entry points, stop-loss placement, and profit targets.

Why Volume Profile Matters in Crypto Trading?

Volume Profile Basics - Understanding

Price and Volume Relationship
The interaction of price and volume is one of the most critical parts of crypto trading. The volume profile takes this relationship one step further by showing just how much volume has traded at each price. If volume increases within a particular price level, this notifies you that the participants see the price as a proper value, and you will see consolidation or reversal in such zones.
For example, if Bitcoin has been trading between $40,000 to $42,000 for days, the volume profile could indicate that volume is concentrated around $41,000. That would mean $41,000 is perceived by the market participants as a price close enough to the real value, and this level might serve either as support or as resistance in future trading.
Volume at key price levels depicts exactly where the big players are most active. Many of these price levels show the strong hands of the market, where large sums of capital are placed with conviction. In being able to understand this relationship creates the ability for traders to predict potential breakout or breakdown areas with a much higher degree of confidence.

Volume Profile Compared to Traditional Volume
While traditional volume indicators have their utility and can be used to show just how much activity occurred in a given time frame, they lack depth when it comes to precise analysis. Traditional volume simply shows the total number of assets traded but does not reveal where, in terms of price, the trading took place. This is where Volume Profile excels.
Volume profile gives you an accurate representation of the exact amount of Bitcoin or Ethereum that was traded at every price level. This is important for timing entry and exit points, especially if one is day trading crypto. For example, if the majority of the trading of Bitcoin has taken place at $30,500, then you would know that future price action around that level is likely to encounter any form of buying or selling pressure.
Volume profile analyzes the market in terms of price zones rather than with an exclusive focus on time. It does this by better determining where the liquidity lies, which can help traders make more intelligent decisions by recognizing key price levels. This is the difference between an informed trade based on substantial data and chasing volatile movements that are driven by emotions.
Using the volume profile means that traders are able to see more in terms of the market psychology and are able to estimate better when a possible market reversal, consolidation, or breakout is about to take place.
Key aspects of volume profile:
Point of Control-POC Perhaps one of the most salient features within volume profile analysis has to be what's called the Point of Control, or POC. The POC refers to a specific price level at which a certain amount of volume was traded the most during some predefined period of time. In other words, it was indeed the price level that the market at any given point in time perceived as being most "fair."
The POC acts like a magnet to price action in crypto trading. For example, if the POC of Bitcoin is at $ 45,000 and the current market price is $ 46,000, then most likely, it will revert back to the POC at $ 45,000 because the volume traded at that level was immense. This gives the traders important information about zones of potential reversion or consolidation.
The POC can be used to set stops or entry points. Prices trading below the POC could see resistance, while those above may face support. By extended observation of price action around POC, traders get to know whether the market is ready to undergo a big price movement. Hence, it is an excellent tool for noticing potential breakouts or breakdowns.

Value Area -VA
The Value Area (VA) shows the range of prices within which 70% of the overall volume of the traded instrument was able to move. It summarizes the most active range of prices, in which a majority of market participants moved. The Value Area is used by traders not just to find zones of high liquidity but also to detect key support and resistance levels.
For instance, if Ethereum's Value Area falls between $3,000 and $3,100, that range then becomes an important area of contention between buyers and sellers. When the price re-enters the Value Area, it is likely to see all kinds of action. If the price is trading above the Value Area and then falls back into the Value Area, this may indicate that the asset is losing momentum and may plummet further. On the other hand, when the price is consistently above the Value Area, that could be interpreted as a sign that the buyers have taken control.
The edges of this Value Area are very useful in establishing breakout points: if the price breaks out above or below the Value Area with good volume, it may be a very good signal for a potential reversal of the trend or its continuance, according to the direction of the breakout.

High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes

High Volume Nodes (HVN) and Low Volume Nodes (LVN) are very important concepts of volume profile analysis. The HVNs represent areas where a great amount of volume has accumulated at specific price levels. These are typically seen as areas of consolidation or interest where both buyers and sellers have actively traded. Generally, HVNs work as areas of support or resistance because, at those levels, many traders are committed to their positions. Going back to the example, if Bitcoin has an HVN at $42,000, in case that price level is approached again, it will most probably see increased trading activity that could confirm it either as a strong support level or a zone of potential selling pressure. Traders place most of their trades around HVNs because such price levels depict the market's willingness to make large purchases and sell.
The opposite of HVNs are areas with minimal trading activity, which we refer to as Low Volume Nodes (LVN). These zones tend to act as price gaps where the market will quickly move through due to a lack of interest. Prices tend to move rapidly through LVNs, developing them as good areas for scalpers or swing traders to take advantage of quick price movements. If the price gets into an LVN, it's less likely to consolidate and more likely to continue trending through the low-volume area. By understanding where the HVNs and LVNs are, traders would thus be in a position to pre-position strategies either in light of potential reversal points or breakout zones and, in this regard, would be better positioned with respect to timing their trades and avoiding being caught in an area of low liquidity.

Volume Profile for Better Trades

Identifying Levels of Resistance and Support
One of the most practical applications of volume profile analysis is identifying support and resistance levels based on trading activity. Traditional support and resistance lines are very often drawn from historical price levels, but the volume profile adds a layer of precision to how much volume was traded at such levels. For example, when Ethereum continuously traded with high volumes between $3,000 and $3,100, this area became a very important support zone. If the price returns to that area again, it is likely to meet huge buying pressure because many traders who bought at that level would want to protect their positions.
Conversely, if the price breaks through a high-volume area, that high-volume area may turn into a resistance zone, which means it will be hard for the asset to rise again through that level.
Such usage of the volume profile allows you to sharpen your entry and exit points. You are, for example, well prepared to get into a long position immediately as Bitcoin approaches a high-volume node since, at those price levels, the market always tends to bounce.
Identifying Reversals Using Volume Profile
Profile volume can also be used to determine possible market reversals. When the price of an instrument enters an LVN-low-volume node, this means that the market is in a place where, as a whole, traders are not highly committed. Thus, it creates faster and more extreme movements in price. In most instances, when the price rapidly goes through an LVN into another area known as a high-volume node-HVN, the price slows down or reverses course due to indecision brought about by this zone of high activity.
As an example, if Bitcoin is trending to 50,000 dollars, and the volume profile shows a decent LVN around the 49,500 to 50,000 dollar range—this could be a sign of a reversal zone since the market is sure to struggle due to poor volume traded at these levels.
Volume Profile for Confirmation of Trends
The volume profile also can be a strong confirmation of the trend. This occurs when the price breaks above a high-volume area with strong volume, thus really giving signals of the continuation of the trend. On the other hand, if the breakout occurs on low volume, it can be a fake breakout and may turn around not so long after.
Let's say Ethereum is trending upwards and breaks above the $2,800 to $2,900 value area on good volume. The volume profile shows that more trading occurs above the range, confirming the conviction of the market support for its upward trend. This would create a situation where you have confidence in your position or even add to it.

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Advanced Strategies for Trading with Volume Profile

Volume Profile Used in Conjunction with Other Indicators
While volume profile is a powerful tool by itself, combined with other technical indicators, its application develops probably more robust trading signals. For example, moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI) applied together with the volume profile will help you measure the strength of the price movements and provide an indication of overbought/oversold conditions.
For example, if Bitcoin's price is approaching resistance with the presence of a high-volume node, it means that the RSI is overbought, which could be a very good signal to exit or shorten the market. The benefits of using multiple data points are that you increase your accuracy and also lower dependability on any one indicator.
Volume Profile for Day Trading
Incorporating Volume Profile into day trading increases intraday opportunities through an emphasis on the formation of volume clusters during the trading session. A trader can identify opportunities for scalps or quick reversals by assessing where the majority of that particular day's volume is focused. Intraday POC (Point of Control) then acts as a reference for the likelihood of continuation or reversal in price movement.
If the volume is centered around, say, the $40,500 level for Bitcoin during the first few hours of trading, for example, that level then becomes a guide that day traders can utilize and make some quick trades. When the price strays very far from that level and then comes back, that probably would be a good entry or exit from the market, depending on the market conditions.
Volume Profile Swing Trading
This is done through volume profile, where swing traders may hold positions for many days or even weeks because value areas and volume clusters will indicate longer-term trends. Knowing the basic concept of where the greatest percentage of trading is occurring allows a swing trader to have better timing for their entries and exits.
As an example, if Ethereum has been in a consolidation phase between $3,000 and $3,100 with high volume, a swing trader would look out for a breakout above $3,100. If this breakout occurs in a high-volume scenario, that is a good signal to enter a long position since the price is very likely to keep rising as it moves into new high-volume zones.

Common Mistakes Using Volume Profile

Volume Cluster Misinterpretation
Misinterpretation of volume clusters is one of the general mistakes traders make while trading with the volume profile. Not all high-volume nodes act as supports or resistances, but sometimes they just reflect consolidation zones where the market is indecisive. Volume profile analysis should be combined with price action and other technical indicators in order to provide a clearer view.
Overreliance on Volume Profile in Isolation
Another mistake people make with Volume Profile is relying too much on its strengths without having any regard for the context and background of the greater market. The volume profile is an awesome tool, but it is not a crystal ball. It should be used with other strategies, such as fundamental analysis, trend analysis, and sentiment analysis , to complete the trading strategy.

Conclusion
Mastering Volume Profile for Smarter Trading
Adding a volume profile to your crypto trading strategy gives you more insight into what goes on in the markets: assessing key price levels, predicting reversals, and confirming trends. Volume profile is an indispensable tool in any trader's toolkit, from pinpointing areas of support and resistance to improving their entry and exit points. It helps make more informed decisions, combined with other methods of analysis and allows one to know such important parts of it as the point of control, value areas, and high-low volume nodes. Being a master of Volume Profile will give a noticeable competitive advantage to one, whether he is either a day trader or a swing trader, in navigating this wild world of cryptocurrencies.

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